Silver and tin: 2 new critical electric metals, says Byron Capital

Silver and tin are two new critical electric metals that are garnering attention, according to Dr. Jon Hykawy, head of global research, clean technologies at Byron Capital Markets, who kicked off a talk on battery materials at the third annual electric metals conference in Toronto on Thursday.

These two metals are expected to see a sharp boost in demand, leading to a predicted shortage in materials for electronics like iPads and Kindles starting in 2017, and an anticipated increase in prices.
Demand for both silver and tin is driven by the fact that both metals are key components in solder alloys that meet the Restriction of Hazardous Substances (RoHS) directive implemented in the EU in 2006.

The directive, which took effect in July of 2006, recognizes that a large proportion of electronic waste will never be recycled, and therefore the materials within devices will dissipate into the environment. For example, when lead is used in substances such as the solder that connects components to a circuit board in an electronic device, there is no way the lead can be collected.

As a result, the EU said that substances like solder, at least within devices intended for sale in the region, must not contain any of the hazardous materials the directive is concerned with, including lead, mercury, cadmium, hexavalent chromium, polybrominated biphenyls and diphenyl ether.

Because of this new law, the search for a new standard solder in the electronics industry began, resulting in a mixture of tin and silver - putting pressure on supplies for both of these metals.



Byron Capital says that from the period of 2004 to 2011, prices for both tin and silver have been appreciating markedly. The firm noted in a recent report that many electronic manufacturers have decided to use lead-free solders on all versions of their products - whether shipping to regions in which RoHS regulations pertain, or not - as it is logistically simpler.

Hykawy says that a shortfall in tin supply is of particular concern, as mining production levels suggest growth rates of tin output are "anemic".

Tin, which is an LME-traded metal, had the lowest warehouse availability of any LME-traded metal at only 10,000 tonnes as of February 22.

Byron predicts that non-investment demand for tin will jump from around 362,000 tonnes last year to more than 544,000 tonnes by 2020. Silver demand, meanwhile, is expected to go up from 844 million ounces in 2011 to over 1 billion ounces by 2020 as demand for silver in the construction of solar modules is also accelerating quickly.

Prices for tin, according to Byron, are projected to more than double to $59,047 per tonne in 2018, while prices for silver are expected to rise to $68.88 per ounce in 2018 - when silver is anticipated to reach critical supply levels - from $35.11 in 2011.

"Global growth is driven by people, energy and materials, and of these materials, more tin and silver is needed or we will have a potentially dangerous supply situation on our hands," says Hykawy.
After an enlightening talk on critical materials used in hybrid, electric and fuel cell vehicles from General Motors' Dr. Yucong Wang, South American Silver's (TSE:SAC) investor relations manager, Robert Gill, spoke on the company's silver and indium assets in Bolivia on Thursday.

Indium's current primary application is to form transparent electrodes from indium tin oxide in liquid crystal displays and touchscreens, and this use largely determines its global mining production.

It is also used for making particularly low melting point alloys, and is a component in some lead-free solders.
South American's Malku Khota project in Bolivia, which is listed by Byton as one of the major new silver projects coming on stream, is one of the world’s largest undeveloped silver and indium resources with an NI 43-101-qualified indicated resource of 230.3 million ounces of silver and 1,481 tonnes of indium, plus an inferred resource of 140 million ounces silver and 935 tonnes indium.

An updated preliminary economic assessment, released last year, showed a net present value of $704 million at a five percent discount rate for a 40,000 tonne per day bulk mineable heap leach operation. Projected silver production is 13.2 million ounces per year, with 80 tonnes of indium per year.

Gill says that the company, with $26.6 million in cash, is due to release a pre-feasibility level update in the second quarter of this year, with feasibility work to start in the second half of 2012.

Source: Proactive Investors UK